Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

行星天文学的重要地位及其热点

对1995年至2001年《Natue》和《Science》上发表的天文学论文的统计表明，行星天文学领域的论文数量明显超过天文学的其它分支学科，占天文学总论文数的1/3左右。从这个角度来看，行星天文学是天文学最活跃和重要的分支学科之一。对这些论文具体内容的分析可以给出当前行星天文学领域的若干热点问题。相比之下，我国对这一重要领域的关注和投入还远远不够。     

Calibration of the kinematic method of studying solar wind disturbances on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution and a simulation study of the heliosphere disturbances between 22 november and 6 december 1977

An empirical kinematic method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982) is calibrated on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution. The calibrated results are used to simulate the stream-stream interaction and the background corotating structure in a simple situation and also during 22 November–6 December 1977. The solar wind disturbances caused by solar activities during this period are then introduced into the above background stream in simulating the heliospheric disturbance event which was observed by an aligned set of spacecraft at distances between 0.6 and 1.6 a.u. The observations and the simulated results are satisfactory, and a little more refinement in the simulation could reconstruct reasonably well the data by filling the data gaps in the solar wind speed, the density and the IMF magnitude.     

基于PowerBuilder的信息系统的权限控制

针对信息系统安全的考虑,介绍在PowerBuilder环境中对用户权限的具体控制.     

云南天文台基本天体测量工作的发展

介绍了云南天文台天体测量工作的发展过程，论述了在空间时代地面光学基本天体测量的必要性和应具备的条件，并且叙述了在新的要求和条件下，地面光学基本天体测量工作应该发挥的作用和广阔的发展前景。     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.     

Sources of ore-forming fluids and metallic materials in the Jinwozi lode gold deposit,eastern Tianshan Mountains of China

This paper presents gas compositions and H-, O-isotope compositions of sulfide- and quartz-hosted fluid inclusions, and S-, Pb-isotope compositions of sulfide separates collected from the principal Stage 2 ores in Veins 3 and 210 of the Jinwozi lode gold deposit, eastern Tianshan Mountains of China. Fluid inclusions trapped in quartz and sphalerite are dominantly primary. H-and O-isotopic compositions of pyrite-hosted fluid inclusions indicate two major contributions to the ore-forming fluid that include the degassed magma and the meteoric-derived but rock ¹⁸O-buffered groundwater. However, H- and O-isotopic compositions of quartz-hosted fluid inclusions essentially suggest the presence of groundwater. Sulfide-hosted fluid inclusions show considerably higher abundances of gaseous species CO₂, N₂, H₂S, etc. than quartz-hosted ones. The linear trends among inclusion gaseous species reflect the mixing tendency between the gas-rich magmatic fluid and the groundwater. The relative enrichment of gaseous species in sulfide-hosted fluid inclusions, coupled with the banded ore structure indicating alternate precipitation of quartz with sulfide minerals, suggests that the magmatic fluid has been inputted to the ore-forming fluid in pulsation. Sulfur and lead isotope compositions of pyrite and galena separates indicate an essential magma derivation for sulfur but the multiple sources for metallic materials from the mantle to the bulk crust.

     

Kuiper带小天体动力演化

Kuiper带是指太阳系内位于离太阳 30～ 50AU一个区域。 1 992年该区域陆续发现了一群半径在几十到几百公里的小天体。这些小天体在Kuiper带的分布是极其不均匀的。Kuiper带小天体的发现对人们认识太阳系的形成与演化有重要的意义。本文回顾了近年来国际上在Kuiper带小天体动力演化方面的研究 ,着重分析了目前国际上几种用以解释其非均匀分布的动力学机制 ,并提出目前该领域的一些尚未解决的问题。     

利用Lageos 1 SLR资料解算1990-2001年的地球定向参数

利用 12年的Lageos 1卫星激光测距资料 (1990 - 2 0 0 1)解算得到了地球定向参数 (EOP) ,将该序列的结果与同期的EOP(IERS)C0 4进行比较 ,其外符精度为 :极移XP— 0 .4 0mas,YP— 0 .4 2mas ,日长变化Dr— 0 .0 35ms。     

基于ARP协议的网络主机地址的识别技术研究

从移动IPv6工作原理入手，IP地址管理器是针对越来越严重的IP地址盗用现象而设计的一套有效的监控和管理IP地址的方案。分析与研究IP地址管理器中的信息收集模块后，以Winpcap为开发工具，利用ARP，附等协议完成对网络中活动主机的扫描以及信息（主机名、MAC、操作系统）的收集和识别。模块实现了对网络的自动实时监控，有效地提高了管理效率。